nhc is waiting for their vortex message, probably so they can decide whether matthew will be tropical or subtropical. based on the core temperatures on yesterday's recon i'd say it is a tropical entity ahead of a baroclinic zone, but of course there's no telling what nhc will decide to call it. all of the weather is east of the center.. unless it accelerates some (don't buy that north-movement crap the globals are trying to give it.. gfs is treating it like a part of the upper trough).. think ene like that option i was pondering a couple days ago.. towards the se louisiana to panhandle region. my ideas aren't too far removed from what scott says, though that stuff about a mid-level vortmax being a depression hitting mexico the other day i didn't dig at all. think it will start shearing out as it nears the coast, too much in the way of westerlies.. if it reintensifies north of 30n after passing into the atlantic more than likely it will no longer be tropical.
complex deep layer system is developing in the central atlantic.. modeling starting to look more like a crossover tropical system rather than a gale center.. another iffy scenario with how nhc handles these things.
yet another deep layer low is forecast to dig southward near the azores and long range modeling looks suspicious there as well. low amplitude wave flaring near 50w is entering a favorable zone and may begin to look more ominous, though that will be a slow, low potential feature if anything.
there's an itcz vortmax south of the gulf of tehuantepec that models are developing in the eastpac some.. taking it wnw. i don't buy that quick movement, think it may be festering more and moving nnw. wait/see, but it gives me some ideas.
soi solidly negative, big typhoon heading for the south coast of honshu in japan... something could well pop in the deep tropics in the next few days. with the current longwave positions the sw caribbean and near the antilles look like the areas to watch... going into next week. gfs keeps speeding up that sharp amplification into the eastern u.s. late next week.. if something is in the western caribbean early next week then florida will have some worries.
HF 1745z08october