OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

GMZ089-091530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AT 25.5N 92.9W 1002 MB AT
0900 UTC MOVING NE 8 KT. MATTHEW WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND MOVE TO 26.4N 92.0W AT 1800 UTC OCT 09...28.1N
90.5W AT 0600 UTC OCT 10...THEN INLAND NEAR 30.6N 89.4W AT 1800
UTC OCT 10...AND FURTHER INLAND NEAR 32.5N 89.5W AT 0600 UTC OCT
11.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004

THE LATEST CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE STORM AND THE PREVIOUSLY IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE HAS BEEN SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ASSUMED CENTER LOCATION AND HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AND HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY. THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS IS MOST GENEROUS. I WOULD NEVER GUESS THAT THERE WAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT I WOULD RATHER NOT KILL THE STORM BASED ON INFRARED IMAGERY. THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND...NOT SURPRISINGLY...I AM FORECASTING THAT MATHEW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN....
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
The above posts are edited versions. Full Advisory available under "Current Storms"