TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004

STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS AGAIN STRIPPED MATTHEW OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE AMPLE SHIP REPORTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR NOW. WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MATTHEW TO STRENGTHEN APPRECIABLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN MATTHEW WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A DEPRESSION. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM MATTHEW CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL SURGE AND INLAND RAIN FLOODING....

....NOW THAT MATTHEW IS ONLY A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THE EASTWARD MOTION HAS STOPPED...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MATTHEW HAS MOVED ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD.
AS CONVECTION COMES AND GOES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL JUMPS TO THE LEFT AND STEPS TO THE RIGHT...BUT SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION SHOULD PREVAIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE...
AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE EASTWARD JOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON.