like phil said, what ed said.
the warm ENSO conditions have begotten faster-than-normal westerlies across most of the basin, and wave energy of any amplitude is shearing off.. while SOI negative backing hasn't coincided with a strong amplification near the east coast to generate a sw caribbean disturbance. things are quiet and the current pattern doesn't favor a significant system threatening the u.s. the circulation in the north atlantic favors north and northeastward-moving systems.
looking out ahead in the models, they are showing something there near the colombian coast out past a week.. though the mid-latitude amplification needed to generate a response down there isn't perking in the models much. there's also another nicole-ish central atlantic feature late next week showing near bermuda. of course 97L is still meandering south of the azores, well outside the threat window for anything in the western atlantic.. but it hasn't transitioned so far and most globals indicate that the broad feature will spin down under increasing shear.
remotely interesting is the convergence near the yucatan, which has a considerable ridge aloft. it hasn't shown any tendency to develop, but it's persistence and location make it worth noting. with the shortwave energy progged to deepen up the east coast on thu/fri to it's north the possibility of a baroclinic jolt exists.
soi remains negative and some activity persists in the eastpac with lester along the mexican coast (and the disturbance to its south which is becoming more organized). another large typhoon should deepen and hook right to the south of japan going into next week. this indicates that the north atlantic shouldn't be limited to only hybrid-type cutoff systems if only a large enough amplification can happen in the eastern u.s.
that's long enough.. the season may be over after all. i wouldn't bet on it myself.
HF 2014z13october