we're at that time of year where the chances at further activity are getting very bleak. aside from a september lingerer and a pair of hybrid type systems near the secondary peak, there have been no more named storms (though a convincing argument could be made that there were a couple of other subtropical systems later in october) in the last month.
the backing with ridging-type pattern needed to trip a west caribbean system hasn't made a convincing appearance.. which isn't to say that it still can't happen, but the chances of a purely tropical system in the atlantic basin are getting close to nil now. a good blocking pattern in the north atlantic could drop one of those deep layer systems down in between bermuda and the azores and give us one more to follow, but it's looking like the landfall threat for the u.s. is all but gone now. otto may still show up, but don't expect to meet him personally.
it's time to start thinking 2005.. check the expected indices and look at some analogs to start getting your ideas for next year.. late in the month i'll post a forum thread for early predictions. most everybody did better than me with their seasonal forecast.. i'll be looking to peg '05.
take it easy, y'all.
HF 2356z02november