LI Phil
Fri Nov 05 2004 02:47 PM
Some thoughts...

from JB:

The monster high that develops Wednesday night and Thursday off the East Coast has a strong east flow underneath it, and a hybrid tropical system should evolve by Thursday morning near 27.5 north and 70 west underneath it.

...the energy coming in digs and tries to pick up the offshore storm sending a major gale center with possible snow on its western side over the Appalachians and a nasty nor'easter on the coast late next week with wind and rain. The Canadian is, by far, the most ambitious with this right now. At the very least, a beach erosion and tidal flooding situation is setting up for the south Atlantic coast. At the worst, a major storm rides northward with complications galore.

It seems like a deja Jeanne here with the GFS as far as position goes. Remember the consistent eastward bias with Jeanne, where a piece would be left behind, but it kept jumping the storm out because it is weak on the feedback of heat from the Tropics. I think we have the same thing here. So while energy will escape, I like the overwhelming model consensus from other sources, based on the pattern I am describing, of the true final development back closer to 70 west.

I want no part of the potential nor'easter...

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