Yup Phil, the phase analyses have finally trended warm core enough to qualify as a tropical cyclone. It's looked good for a couple of days now on satellite, but only yesterday did the system become warm-core throughout the troposphere (as opposed to in the lower levels, which it had been - at least weakly - since Saturday), while today it became even moreso warm-core. We've probably got an early December meanderer on our hands, meaning I wouldn't expect much out of this system. Then again, we all know what 2004 has brought...

Of course, Otto forms just as the season's data was started to be archived on our machines...so if the FSU phase analysis & model output pages have been slow lately, you all know why...go figure!

Should be one for the fish and a nice treat here in the holidays.