| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:14 PM |
Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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The season's first tropical depression, TD #1, has formed in the Northwest Caribbean Sea. Located just over 300 miles south of the western tip of Cuba, the storm is forecast to gradually become better organized into a strong tropical storm over the next three days and make landfall along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday evening or early Sunday morning. A series of hurricane hunter flights is planned into the storm over the coming days to provide further information about the storm, which continues to become better organized on satellite imagery with time.
Everyone along the northern Gulf coast from Texas to Florida should pay attention to the path & evolution of this storm. We'll know more about the future intensity and path of the season's first depression over the coming hours.
Current Model Plots (Thanks M. Bryson & Coop)
Event Related Links
Animated model plots for TD#1
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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Until we get links and (hopefully) Skeetobite's maps...i'll post the weather underground tracking map
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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I talked to a good friend of mine, he's got alot of knowledge and expirence in forecasting, and chasing tropical weather. He believes TD1 has the possibilty of becoming a minimal hurricane before landfall. I tend to think so too, but Im going to stick with a 60 mph tropical storm landfalling somewhere between the Mouth of the MS. and Destin. Leaning towards Biloxi/Pascagoula.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:45 PM |
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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One thing interesting to note. If you look at Climatology in early june. Most storms from that origin normally strike the west coast of florida
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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I posted this morning at the tropical weather forum on S2K that I have it as a 65mph Tropical Storm making landfall mid-day Monday between Henderson Point, MS (Hancock Co.) and Mobile Bay (Mobile Co.). Some of the pro mets I've encountered think the GFDL/GFS is way too fast and too far west. We'll see.
Steve
| Beaujolais |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean *DELETED*
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Post deleted by LI Phil
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:51 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:55 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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well looks like the models currently agree on a landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Pensacola. My personal opinion says somewhere near or just east of Mobile, AL... possibly as a minimal Hurricane. Looks like it will come very close or just over the tip of western Cuba too, this likely sometime overnight Thursday or very early Friday, and probably as a 45 mph Tropical Storm.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:57 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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I got the feeling that the track in going to shift a little more towards the east.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 10:02 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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no big deal...i don't get nervous till they are a cat 3....
a tropical storm is almost a daily event in Mobile. This place can suck up some rain...all it will do is keep things cooler, but, alas...wet....
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 10:33 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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Our local met out of Tampa stated that they feel the Bermuda High would guide the storm towards the west. My question is where is the Bermuda High located at this time, latitude and longitude etc. Because there is no definitive satellite picture showing the effects of the high as there was last year.
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 10:35 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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I agree Rick, The Pensacola area could handle a minimal TS but a strong TS or minimal hurricane might be pushing it. Alot of people still live in temporary shelter AKA trailers and RV's. Hope they start strapping them down soon.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 10:40 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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well, either i'm smoking grass or the tampa met is because it is my understanding of the bermuda high (pardon the pun) is that it affects atlantic storms, particularly CV long trackers, but not GOM storms....i don't believe it has much, if any, influence on gulf storms.
somebody please correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe there are other factors (like the ridge clark mentioned) which would cause this TD to move NNW, but not the BH
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 10:40 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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got a hunch that it will get up to hurricane in the south central gulf late on friday, then near steady on its way in, maybe weakening slightly near landfall. think that will be sunday afternoon near perdido bay (fl/al border).. maybe just east of where ivan crossed last year. an earlier landfall will be further west, probably a weak sheared system. later will be more to the east, probably the same relative intensity (borderline ts/hurricane). i don't think louisiana or anywhere east of apalachicola gets hit... somewhere in the middle, most likely pascagoula over to navarre.
HF 2339z08june
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 10:45 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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>>well, either i'm smoking grass or the tampa met is because it is my understanding of the bermuda high (pardon the pun) is that it affects atlantic storms, particularly CV long trackers, but not GOM storms....i don't believe it has much, if any, influence on gulf storms.
You're smoking the grass - not saying I blame you or anything. The position of the Bermuda High/SW Atlantic Ridge plays a part in all storms that travel its periphery or approach its sphere of influence. Often that ridge is deep into the SE US, other times it's out to sea It just depends on where it's at and what its strength is. My guess would be the western periphery will be across the Florida peninsula, and belief that it's going to build in and accelerate TD #! in a NNW-NW motion around it's western side. How strong the ridging is and how far west it comes will determine if we have a WFL landfall or an AL/MS landfall.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Jun 08 2005 10:46 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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>>and belief that it's going to build in and accelerate TD #! in a NNW-NW motion around it's western side
And what that was supposed to continue to say was the belief...is what's guiding the NHC and modeling in the track.
Steve
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 10:52 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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Quote:
well, either i'm smoking grass or the tampa met is because it is my understanding of the bermuda high (pardon the pun) is that it affects atlantic storms, particularly CV long trackers, but not GOM storms....i don't believe it has much, if any, influence on gulf storms.
somebody please correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe there are other factors (like the ridge clark mentioned) which would cause this TD to move NNW, but not the BH
The Bermuda High's influence will depend on it's strength. Ivan was steered, at least in part, by the Bermuda High.
Don't mistake the upper level ridge that is forecast to develop over this system with the BH...BH is a surface feature...however, you are both correct. If you look at a current surface analysis of the Atlantic the BH is there, although much further NE than the height of the season last year. This system will track around the "edge" of the BH, but will also ride 'underneath' the ULH...does that make sense?
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:09 PM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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Makes alot of sense Jason, Thanks. By the way, I recieved a DVD from a buddy that had footage from your station during Ivan when that tornado went right over the station. It was quite amazing seeing the clouds and debris rotating around the camera. Bet that must have been exciting. Anyways, what are your thoughts on our little depression?
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:18 PM |
NWS Posts tropical storm warning
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Check this out. Isnt this a little too soon to post a tropical storm warning for the United States?
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=tropical%20storm%20warning
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:21 PM |
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Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning
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That warning is for the offshore waters, not for any land areas.
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning
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Yes, however its not even a storm yet. It will more than likely become one, however Why put warning is its still a depression. Pre-warning for ships? Maybe
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:33 PM |
Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning
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It appears to becoming better oreganized. But the recon is only finding 20 mph winds. In there is a cold core center. We are looking at Grace 2005 guys!!!
seen a dozen or more form just like this. center's really broad and there's not much wind gradient yet. that's all. -HF
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:34 PM |
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Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning
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The Tropical Storm Warning is for 'marine interests' and mariners. It serves to warn and forewarn that tropical storm conditions are forecast in the particular areas of the Gulf of Mexico- GOM.
Most ships don't have the ability to move faster thatn 25kts. So the warning gives them ample time to change course, anchor in place or delay their departure from a 'safe haven'.
Somewhat similar to the Storm Prediction Centers Day 1- Day 3 Outlooks.
Long range planning!!
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:35 PM |
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Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning
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the point of the warning is to let you know that tropical storm conditions are likely
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:36 PM |
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Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning
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the official forecast is for tropical storm conditions in that part of the gulf. so... there's a warning. nothing to it really.
HF 0035z09june
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:42 PM |
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Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning
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[RECCO | ONE (01L) OB #17] Time: 2301Z; Lat: 18.4°N; Long: 85.3°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 1083ft; Flt Winds: NE (50°) @ 30 mph; Temp: 73°F; Dewpoint: 72°F; Weather: Broken Skies; Sfc Winds: NE (50°) @ 29 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1005mb
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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It's amazing how all the models seem io agree on this storm's destination. That 'cone' is the narrowest I've ever seen so far in advance. Is that the result of newer technology or other form of better prediction methods for landfalling systems? If so, that would be a plus.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 12:15 AM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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18Z GFS seems to have some new ideas on TD1.
Looks like it is trying to "wash the storm out" around Pensacola-Mobile.
Have a look at this here: http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/ (click 950mb vorticity)
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 12:31 AM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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I posted this on the last forum, but, alas, Clark was already on the ball with this new one! Our local met on Bay News 9 said at 4:50pm: "We've been keeping an eye on a broad area of low pressure and at any time they feel it necessary, the NHC can send a plane out there to check it out." Kinda makes you wonder, doesn't it?
Anyway, from what I could glean from the same met 10 minutes later was this: the Bermuda high is creating steering winds lined up like this:
^^^
^^^
^^^
surrounding Florida, and the the low would be on the left side of those steering winds, which would keep it from coming closer to us here on the west coast of Florida. Then again, he mentioned that depending on how fast or how slow this system moves, everything could go squirrley so we need to pay close attention to it until it's past us.
So, here's the gist: most of the rain will be on the eastern side of the storm. The closer the storm is to Florida, the more rain we get. If, on the other hand, it's offshore by 300-400 miles (maybe less) then we get the benefit of some nice weather.
The models seem to have been in agreement with this storm since they latched on, so unless something weird happens, I'm not all that concerned about west central Florida taking a direct hit. That being said, I am concerned that if it stays close enough to our coast line, we will have a lot of flooding problems and there are so many people who still have blue tarps up that it's not even funny.
My Mom called me and asked me if I thought it would be safe for them to drive down on Friday as planned; I told her that I would just keep an eye on the weather and if they have to postpone it by a day then that would be the safest thing to do.
Sorry for being so scientific in my explanations, it's just my nature.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 12:36 AM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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Quote:
It's amazing how all the models seem io agree on this storm's destination. That 'cone' is the narrowest I've ever seen so far in advance. Is that the result of newer technology or other form of better prediction methods for landfalling systems? If so, that would be a plus.
Primary reason that there is such good agreement is the fact that this is an early season storm, and the steering currents are much more well defined than they will be later in the season...early and late season stuff is generally easier to predict.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 12:43 AM |
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Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
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dem05: The GFS isn't going to capture the intensity or structure of a tropical system very well, so it's not really to be trusted for tropical development. What you see therein the model is about as close as you are going to get. Case in point: Isabel at its peak intensity was no lower than 996mb in the GFS. The track is okay, as the influences that influence track from the midlatitudes are fairly well represented (but the weaker intensity of the storm negatively impacts the track forecast nonetheless), but I wouldn't put too much stock in the intensity of the storm in the model.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 12:45 AM |
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Is this the LLC?
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WV Loop
Okay...someone help me out here, please!
I think I've finally found the LLC. Is it that area with clouds and what looks like a black hole in the middle that is almost due south of the western tip of Cuba and southwest of where the convection is? I'm really struggling here, but hopefully I've finally found it.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 12:54 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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Wrong tool for the job....time for my annual WV post...LOL.
You can't see the LLC on vapor because WV doesn't sample the low levels...it samples the mid-levels. You might see where the LLC is if it is stacked over the MLC, but you can't actually "see" the LLC.
And even if you could, I can't confidently discern the current center from that loop. You probably have better eyes than I do though. LOL
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:11 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC? *DELETED*
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Post deleted by HanKFranK
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:16 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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Oh, it is trying to get organized...just gonna be a slow process.
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:24 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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I believe it wont get to much more organized until it starts moving towards the SE gulf by Tomorrow night and Friday. I always hate watching Depressions, they always make me lose more sleep then major hurricane. Thing is you know what a major hurricanes gonna do. Depressions leave you pasted to the screen all night wondering if its getting better organized. Look for Arlene in the SE gulf.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:33 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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Ok, dumb question... I've looked at the WV, the IR, and the VIS. The VIS is the only one (to me) that shows signs of organization (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html).
The IR and the WV look like the bands are moving, but there isn't really a circulation cente (maybe I see it in the last two frames of the IR). Am I seeing things right, or have I really lost it? To me, looking at the radar earlier today, it seemed to be converging around a central point more than it appears to be now...
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:48 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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No such thing as dumb questions...
VIS is absolutely the best remote sensing tool for hurricane cloud pattern analysis..WV and IR are good, but can (and do) gloss over the fine details...remember that Vis is 1km resolution....IR is 4km and WV is 8k...Problem is we only get vis during the day (for now...but that will change a bit in about 8 years....LOL).
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:48 AM |
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Re: 00z runs
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is it me or have the 00z runs moved back to the right, and would they have recon data in them? or when would that happen?
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:48 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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Your in the same boat as most of us.It is really tough in the early stages of a storms development w/such a broad low to find the LLC.Once it gets going you will be able to find it by infra at night.Frank P if it comes up this way maybe me and some Wisers come by.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:49 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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folks...i think we're getting a tad ahead of ourselves at this moment...this is still a TD, and while we should see development, right now it's slowly trying to get it's act together...you're not going to see banding and other hurricane features with a TD...let it matriculate a bit further north, where it will be in a more conducive environment for development, and let some of the daytime heating have a go and we'll see what we have tomorrow...read jason & clarks blogs before posting...they explain a lot of what's going on right now...after TSFH last year, i can understand everyone wanting to be on top of things and that is to be commended...this one (for now) is moving ever so slowly so there is plenty of time to prepare should that become necessary...
if the models are correct, we will have TS Arlene tomorrow and that's when we need to really start focusing...
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:55 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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This is one of thoes "yea right" things that can come back and bite you if you are not watching... all eyes need to be on the N GOM
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:55 AM |
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where to post??
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Can we all agree where we are suppose to be posting,for this TD.
| vvvteddybearvvv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 01:57 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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so for dumb queston what is llc?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:01 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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Sorry, Jason! Every year I ask that question and every year I forget that you can't look at the WV loop!
I'll get it right someday.
I guess right now it's just not organized enough for me to spot or pinpoint the location with my untrained eyes. I'm sure once it gets going, I'll be on top of it again.
Thanks for your answer!
Nothing to be sorry about..I have to relearn a lot every year myself...JK
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:02 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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LLC-Low Level Circulation ( Center )
For more see: Terms to know
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:02 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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I agree Phil. We all know depressions take time to get there act together, especially given the enviroment TD 1 is in. The ridge is forecast to build over the gulf as has been stated today and that will put the TD in a better posittion to intensify by the time it gets in the Gulf. At least thats what I make of the situation. We'll see what actually happens.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:03 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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LLC:low level circulation visible during daytime visilbe sat.Actually w/infra at night with a developed storm would see center of circulation.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:03 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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No dumb questions here, remember?
"LLC" stands for "low level circulation". In other words, it's closer to the surface than an ULL (upper level low) which is higher in the atmosphere. Hope that helps!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:03 AM |
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Re: 00z runs
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Quote:
is it me or have the 00z runs moved back to the right, and would they have recon data in them? or when would that happen?
The only 00z data we have is the LBAR/BAM suite...they have been somewhat further east the entire time anyway, so it is not unusual that these are a bit further east...we'll see what the globals and the better track models do later tonight/tomorrow. The only recon data these have in them are the center fixes...no upper air stuff.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: where to post??
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Quote:
Can we all agree where we are suppose to be posting,for this TD.
please don't misunderstand the intent of my post...please feel free to ask away with questions and the like...i simply wanted to point out that until there is further development, it will be very difficult to identify the more "classic" signs of a potential hurricane, such as llc's mlc's, rotation, etc...i do not mean to downplay the possible development of this storm nor do i want anyone to put down their guard...i'm simply stating that for this evening, what we are dealing with is a naiscent TS, but one that is still a TD and as such, is characterized more by disorganized convection than any discernable "classic" cyclone traits...
if you have questions, please do not hesitate to ask.
Spongebob: LLC= low level circulation
many of your questions can be answered here.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:06 AM |
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Re: where to post??
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Right here, buddy. Just look for the newest topic/forum. I'll point you in the right direction if ya get lost.
Kinda like the blind leading the blind though.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:08 AM |
Hype Machine At Full Speed
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Fox News in Orlando has promised their Scare-O-Meter later in the telecast.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:08 AM |
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Musings and my take on the depression
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The depression is going to take a while to get going, assuming it ever really gets going at all (I'm still not 100% convinced it will hold together). The hardest part about storms like these, particularly at night, is there is no real effective way to see incremental changes that occur as the storm gets organized. By the time you're seeing any real organization on the IR or WV loops, it's not a depression anymore (most lkely). I'm just as guilty as everyone else about looking for the next frame of the sat loops and wondering to myself... what are we seeing? (Kinda like reading tea leaves, only a little more obscure). Usually it's easier to take things in 3 - 6 hours increments. Even with well developed hurricanes a small fluctuation may mean nothing but a course wobble, or it could portend a major shift in intensity or direction. It's really hard to tell.
I hope this isn't coming across as a slam at anyone, it's not. it's just that the incremental changes to look for take a few hours to show up definitively on the sat images.
As an aside, what are some good weather related links to browse while we wait for the next set of images? something that would take a while to read and digest and perhaps give us neophytes some information to chew upon. Something basic, and then some more advanced links as well....
Ok, now on to the meat of the post (Standard Disclaimer: IANAM, and what i say should be taken with a grain of salt (or a nice big ole salt lick if you prefer)). From what I'm seeing, The biggest development has been the convection coming off of Honduras and forming a potential spiral arm. At the same time, The thunderstorms collapsed on the western side of the depression. However there is more thunderstorm activity near the center now than at any point in the storms life. It looks like the outflow is getting better (hey, in my book a little outflow is better than *no* outflow), but there still is no convection on the southern side of the storm (not counting the storms off of Honduras...) I'd say the depression is a bit stronger now than 6 hours ago. However still not a tropical storm by any stretch.
Questions to ponder:
Will the convection remaining on the eastern side of the storm 'pull' the llc to the right (east)? Will High pressure build in enough to push the storm to the west? The shear appears to be relaxing to the west, will it continue to relax and potentially enhance outflow?
Just my musings, don't take it too seriously.
-Mark
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:09 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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Jav, when a tropical depression, or tropical storm or hurricane warning are posted for Biloxi its always open house at the Frank P manor for my hurricane fanatic friends.... just bring a few cold ones.... you won't find a better viewing site for watching one.... I can guarantee...
Back to TD one... going to be a slow process.... probably won't see much developement until it reaches the GOM... this will be a good tune up for the central gulf coast....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:10 AM |
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Re: where to post??
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Well, my friend, until this TD gets more organized, there's not much for me to look at right now. I think in the next 24-48 hours the picture will become clearer and we'll know more since we have recon going in there.
Now this tired mom of Thing 1 & Thing 2 is going to bed!
Have a great night!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:14 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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Thanks FrankP.
Although the MS Gulf Coast might need a tune up. I think it's rather early in the season for them.
It might be more of a mad rush for some of them.
Planning makes all the difference. Be ready on June 1st, and you should be ready all season.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:16 AM |
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Re: Musings and my take on the depression
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If you are a model geek like me, or you are not and need a good snooze...check this page out. It is the NHC explainer about the track models...how they work and their accuracy, or lack thereof. It is a little out of date, but still a good reference.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:20 AM |
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Re: Is this the LLC?
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yeah Danny but if all we are dealing with is at best a strong tropical storm heck most people don't even board up .... I won't for 60 mph winds.... now in the unlikely event it does crank up, which NO ONE is even remotely mentioning then it would be a mad rush of epic proportions.... but don't see that happening..
Be cool to have a couple of 50 or 60K feeder bands pounding on my house.... but no more....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:20 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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LOL---Scare-O-Meter! Heck, I'm on the west coast and the guy on Bay News 9 was oblivious to the fact that there was even a plane OUT there 10 minutes before he had to announce that the NHC had just announced that TD#1 had formed.
I think what they are doing ("they" being the media) is trying to prepare people as much as possible for this year's hurricane season. Last year was devastating to so many people because we had so many close calls that people didn't really believe they could get hit...especially those living inland, like me.
If TD#1 stays on it's current track projection, Orlando may get one raindrop.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:24 AM |
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Re: Musings and my take on the depression
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/database/new/database.html
to add to what Jason gave you here are some more models and their defs.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:32 AM |
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Re: Musings and my take on the depression
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Still looking at TD#1 folks, I fixed some of the automated position stuff on the site, and added back the chat link on the left.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: Musings and my take on the depression
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it seems to be developing like Gordon in 2000
that was in September, but we havent had a June TD in the Caribbean in a decade
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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Looks like most of the gang is all here. First post of the new season for me. Usually it is in July but here we are in early June with the first TD.
Looking at the model runs...funny to see GFDL not being the outlier. I see a couple of new ones too.
I don't like the fact that Florida is on the wet side of TD1. We are already saturated here in Central Florida.
Nice seeing all of ya's.
Ed, Mike, LI Phil, Colleen, wxman.
Rick
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:37 AM |
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Re: Musings and my take on the depression
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am I reading the outflow right that it is already all the way to central Florida? That is quite a distance for outflow, isn't it?
Seems, if nothing else, we could see quite a rain even across central florida thru the panhandle.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:39 AM |
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Chat Room is open...
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The Flhurricane IRC chat room is open to anyone who wants to chat...just hit the chat link to the left and join us!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:39 AM |
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Re: where is this?
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is this a very small island?
ESTIMATE LOW CENTER OVER ISLAS DEL CISNE AT POSITION 17.4N 083.9W
Per OB 20
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:40 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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I guess I had it wrong. It's the Scary-Meter. They must have spent four or five minutes on TD1, even showing Colleen's Cone of Death already. LOL.
The Scary-Meter has moved up to a 2 today, apparently it was a 1 yesterday. I'd give it a minus 2 for Orlando, but that's just me.
Jason, do you have a Scary-Meter?
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:42 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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I went to a speech over the weekend given by Jim Lushine with the NWS who seemed quite convinced that the wet spring we've had in Florida would mean no storms for Florida this year. This being due to the position of the Bermuda high. I am kinda thinking this would be the case in a "normal" year - but I believe the weather pattern we've experienced for the past couple weeks was actually due to enhanced activity tropics (including our current TD) - not due to the Bermuda high being further North/West. Any thoughts on this?
BTW - I am in Fort Lauderdale on business till further notice. Nice of my employer to send me here from Indiana right in time for the season. I have noticed since I have been here that the TV stations seem to be the most hyped-up people on earth. This week its "Trouble in the tropics" but every day they are trying to scare people with something new...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:47 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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Quote:
Jason, do you have a Scary-Meter?
it's called a mirror...
seriously folks, lets try to keep the posts of a "serious" nature...there'll be plenty of time for humor and giddiness when the heart of the season taxes us all and we need a break...
scare-o-meter...my god, what will they think of next
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: 11pm adv
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looks like landfall around 8pm sat near or just west of mobile?
sat landfall as a TS
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: Musings and my take on the depression
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I saw those storms over Honduras if only they could get pulled in would I believe of some benefit fo renergy.I think lastest advisory takes into your consideration some still loose but now @30kts.I believe it was 25kts earlier.The SW quad seems to be the inhibiting factor now
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: 11pm adv
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Looks like I moved away from Mobile, AL just in the nick of time.....lol...but now I live just north of Tampa...Does that make me a hurricane chaser?
Teresa I think it makes you a Hurricane fleer...LOL...JK
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 03:01 AM |
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Re: 11pm adv
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I say chaser because Im told to expect more of last year here....
Teresa
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 03:04 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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First off a hearty hawyalldurrin from Atlanta. It seems just yesterday or the day before we were talking about Ivan, but on to this year. Yes the local mets here at 2 and 5 have been discussing this storm albeit briefly, but the only time to worry I think is when Jim Cantore is in your backyard....literally.
Ironic though, that the first TD of the season fires up right during hurricane week on TWC and today's show was on Charley...
Now for the dumb question of the night.....I thought that there were two highs, one in GOM and one off Bermuda, and I thought that a high would retard any development of storms in the nearby area?
TTFN
Jeff
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 03:24 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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Theres a high or ridge to the east of our depression, the bermuda high and a trough in the gulf. Thats what all the dry air over the gulf is from. the models continue to show this trough backing west and the ridge sliding into eastern gulf this weekend. A ridge over a storm is a good thing(if you want to call it that) it helps in ventilating the storm, so intensification can take place. So to answer your questions, high pressure over a storm is a plus for development. Remember no dumb questions. Were all learning. Im sure a pro could correct me if Im wrong though, it can be pretty complicated. Have a good night.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 03:46 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean
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shortwave IR
URL repaired
this is the best satellite for night time viewing
if you look near 18N/84W convection, the center appears to be tightening just a tad; i dont see the multiple vorticies i saw earlier either
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 04:09 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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Evening everyone, well here everyone is again. Nice to see everyone back educating me. Colleen, you cracked me up last year and your off to a good start already. Excellent site changes by the way!!!! The site keeps getting better. Anyway, talk about persistent, is this basically the same low that has been down there for about 2 weeks now. Getting everyone at the job perked up again
)) No spellcheck, how did I do )
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 04:40 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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I may just be a moron however, This is from the 12:30 image ( as java will not install on my machine for some odd reason) So I dont have the option of loop images.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
I was just thinking of all the convection the the eastern side and a more closed pattern as far as water vapor goes, What are the chances of the center pushes more eastern a few degress then hitting T.S status?
Just a question. Im sure it wont happen just had to bring it up .
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 04:57 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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That thought has been tossed about previously. Regarding your JAVA issue, did it work before? Go to Control Panel, click on JAVA icon, advanced tab. Try 2 things, in Java parameters, type in the words only (as shown), or try hitting reset, you can also go to update tab and click update now.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:01 AM |
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Prototype Model maps
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The following are prototype model track maps based on the latest model data (as detailed in each image)
Enjoy.
Track map
Full size
County zoom
Full size
Model Initialization points
Full size
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:01 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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I have tried to install jave during install i get error massage.
Tried manual install, whith no resolve as it says I already have java 5.0 update 2
No java in browser or in control panel. I dont know what else to do
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:09 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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mysticalmooons -- with the current convective structure, there is always the possibility of the center reforming nearer to the deep convection as/if/when the storm attempts to become better organized. That is actually common with many weak and/or sheared storms and is often seen when there is a broad area of low pressure, such as with TD 1. However, as of yet there isn't much indication of this happening: low-level center still appears to be on the west side of the system. But, the current organization to the bands & somewhat natural tendency for storms to try to become better organized hints that unless we see some development near the center soon, we could well see this occur with TD 1 as well.
Aside: convection on the west side of the storm died off several hours ago (first indicated by an outflow boundary being ejected towards the west from the complex, followed by the collapse of the convection). This hints that we might not see a lot of convective development near the current center for the time being, due to a somewhat stabilized environment. Given some time, though, maybe 6-12h more, the environment should have sufficiently recovered for new convective development to occur.
Ultimate impact of a reformation towards the east, with regards to track: probably would result in the storm ending up a bit more to the east at landfall, but probably not dramatically so. Things have the tendency to even out with time, despite the inability of the models to capture all of the inner processes tropical cyclones go through, as the overall flow regime at mid & upper levels should be more or less the same given a 1-2 deg jump to the east. Ultimately though, the main changes come to the track & intensity over the first day -- more to the east and stronger due to better organization, respectively.
Hope this helps answer things. We'll know a lot more in 12-18hr as to what this storm is going to do...especially once the big jets get out there to sample the storm & its environment.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:19 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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I would remove and reinstall www.java.com/en/download/windows_automatic.jsp
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:21 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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Thank you clark, That helped somewhat, lol
I am 24 and cook on cocoa beach, and dont know what the hell u were talking about , BUT I did grasp the understanding. So essentally then a waiting game, lol
But I do think it will move more eastern if not by much a little. ( just to hope to be right, lol)
Anyways hope everyone is having fun. I am always interested in the weather and hope to learn more
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:23 AM |
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reformation
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thats the caveat.. a new center in the better environment to the east is the pathway to a much stronger storm. all of that mid-level dry air got in the center today and nixed the tightening/organization process.. the convective bands to the east keeping the inflow forcing on outer bands exacerbated the situation. there's still lots of that 'robber convection' as i call it away to the east, and streaming northwest along the depression's edge in the easterly flow. if the center were to jump over into that we'd have a hurricane in 36 hrs.. probably won't though.
do think it will get to tropical storm tomorrow.. figured on slow, but it's actually going a bit slower than i'd reckoned.
HF 0621z09june
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:24 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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mysticmooons -- sorry, my mistake. I sometimes still need work on better explaining things; within the education I'm getting, we don't do that a lot and mainly end up just talking amongst ourselves about something, which is usually pretty technical. Essentially though, it could have an impact, but not a great one in the long run. That's not always the case, as we saw with minor deviations during the 2004 hurricane season, but I think is more or less the case with TD 1.
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:29 AM |
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Re: reformation
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I agree with you both Clark and Hank, I've realized that depressions usually wait around until they enter more favorable atomospheric condtions then start to organize. The ones that dont encounter better conditions fall apart. Anyways Hank, what are your thoughts on future track and intensity? Care to give it a shot. Most models have been in an agreement that the area from SE LA too about Destin, FL are the most likely points. Im sticking close to the NHC track, what about you?
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:29 AM |
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Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed
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Thats ok, Hell the more technical the more I like it. Besides look at all the terms and explainations I am learning by it and others. ll take things I dont know and look them upo so I can understand them more. LOL
Besides no one ever said weather was easy so I dont think the teaching should be easy. Teach on ,lol
| vvvteddybearvvv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 05:37 AM |
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Re: recon decoder
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kinda off topic put with the help of the lovley people in the chat i am working on fixing the recon decoder
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 06:53 AM |
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Looking better
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TD1 sure looks like it's getting it's act together tonight. The convection is surely firing off a lot more than it was earlier in the day. Certainly the healthiest it's looked since it's inception.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 06:58 AM |
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Re: recon decoder
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the center is now exposed, but there is deep convection firing east of the center, and t'storms seem to be trying to form NW of the center
aside from that, the pressure has not risen at the 2am advisory as i had expected
how much longer does everyone think until we have Arlene?
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 06:59 AM |
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Re: Looking better
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I agree. Its good to see Im not the only one up at this time of night. I just looked at the 00z GFDL and it has basically stayed on track. Shows landfall around Mobile/Pensacola at Minimal Cat 1. Im not sure about intensity, but the track seems to be in agreement with many other models. Tomorrow afternoon, I believe we'll have Arlene. Im thinking about 55-60mph at landfall.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 07:08 AM |
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Re: Looking better
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3 AM hour...the convection that fired over Hond. this evening is now being consolidated into the system. Overall, the system is looking a little better but still on the ragged side.
I think we may see Arlene at 11 AM. Just a guess though.
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 10:10 AM |
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Re: Looking better
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TD1 looking better organized this morning. Convection seems to be trying to wrap around the center more; Although still not much on the west and SW sides. I think will have a named storm at 5pm update and a minimal Cat 1 at landfall somewhere between Panama City and FL/Alabama border.
Hurric
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 10:11 AM |
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Re: 6 AM Quick Look
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A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been flying in and around Tropical Depression 1 since around 1:30 AM EDT.
They have made 2 passes through the "center" area and have repeatedly found a very slight decrease in barometric pressure, and a very slight increase in wind speed.
0639Z pressure extrapolated to sea level- 1003mb
0847Z pressure extrapolated to sea level- 1002mb
0639Z Maximum flight level wind was 31 kt in the NW quad
0847Z maximum flight level wind was 34 kt in the SE quad
Watching the satellites over the last 5 hours has proven interesting. What first appeared to be a decay in the convection on the eastern semi-circle of the depression. Is now solid convection and lightning, from the 12 o'clock position around to the 6 o'clock position.
The East Gulf of Mexico buoy-42003 1010.4mb, winds ENE 14kts, waves 2ft.
Noaa buoy 42056, sw of Grand Cayman 1004.6mb. highest 1 min wind-27.2 and waves at 7.9ft.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/West_Caribbean.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 10:19 AM |
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Re: 6 AM Quick Look
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Td1 will be Arlene later today. Pressure is drpping and winds are incresing.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 11:28 AM |
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It's now Tropical Storm Arlene
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 091048
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
A 09Z SHIP REPORT 130 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Well here it is the first tropical storm of the 2005 season.