Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jan 22 2005 06:59 AM
Re: Happy New Year, May 2005 be a Calm Season

Slow in getting around here, but alas....been rather busy these past few weeks! Really like the new layout to the site, very snazzy. I was out in San Diego for awhile at the national AMS conference -- not much tropical, but there was still one session during the week on tropical cyclones, the tropical cyclone season in review, as well as the opportunity to talk with a lot of the big names in the field.

You all will be interested to know that yes, the forecasters at the NHC do, from time to time, check out these fan sites. Sometimes, they are right along with what we are saying, wave mongering and all. Other times, they want to rip their hair out at some of the things said! So yes, it goes both ways. Also, the NHC has seen many of the cartoons highlighting this season and even included a couple in the 2004 season in review.

That presentation, which I saw once in San Diego and again in more depth here at FSU just two days ago, highlighted several things of interest. One, they showed the SLOSH model output for Charley, highlighting the mechanism -- small circulation/eye size -- for such a small storm surge through the region. They really likened that storm to a tornado vortex. Its intensification near shore is still up for debate, but one theory includes jet streak interactions. The "return of Ivan" is still a subject of debate, but they are pretty well convinced that yes, it was Ivan, but that yes, there will always be room for debate. The evolution of Lisa was also brought up and they believe that had it and the vortex behind it -- Jack Beven called it "Lisa Prime" -- had a bit more space, we would've seen another storm out there. As it was, without more data in the storm's environment, the decision was made to stick with Lisa. The consensus models were the best ones this year, with the FSU Superensemble taking the title of "best model" this year for both intensity and storm track.

Everyone that I've met has been very approachable and very knowledgeable. Max Mayfield is very personable and affable, but a very busy person. Jack Beven is an interesting character and seems to be a storm tracker at heart. Lixion Avila -- yeah, definitely a character, a good "philosophist," and an interesting story teller! I've also met others outside the NHC, such as Chris Landsea (who's career path I very much envy). In many cases, despite being in grad school now and being able to call myself a meteorologist, I'm still in awe of some of these people and the work they do.

Alas, that about does it. Not much out there -- we've seen a WPac storm come and go, and really, that's going to be about it for the Northern Hemisphere for awhile. It's nice, to tell the truth. And come June, I'll be there with all of the forecasters at the NHC in hoping for a busy season with every last storm spinning up only the fish. Until next time...



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