| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Mar 06 2005 02:49 PM |
|
Re: El Nino weakening neutral conditions expected
|
Quote:
OK, I'm still a weather newbie, but from what I'm gathering... El Nino conditions are weakening or will weaken. This would make for a more active Atlantic hurricane season. And I have been also paying more attention to the Bermuda high, which has not moved into a different location, where it has remained will continue to steer hurricanes toward Florida. Am I anywhere near correct in my understanding?
Just want to be on the up and up with this. Too many people were caught off guard last season. Too many people are still nowhere near having there repairs completed as supplies are still in such demand. So, hopefully a little bit of insight into the "potential" of what we may experience will help us prepare the best we can.
I'm assuming you read that article in the Palm Beach Post. It uses Jim Lushine and a couple of the NHC forecasters to solidify its position that the Bermuda High's position hasn't changed much from last year.
Although looking at averages of the high's strength and location for several months may be a method of coming to that conclusion, the most important thing to remember is that hurricane landfalls are VERY difficult to predict months in advance. In fact, doing that is damn near impossible. The landfalling location of a hurricane is something that is determined on, at times, a down to the last minute scale. Basically, it's hard to predict such a short term event with long term methods. That's why it is hard to get a grip on who might be at the greatest risk this season.
Maybe a met/met student could shed some more light on this.
EDIT: Also, there is always "potential" to experience a severe hurricane landfall in any given season. With that being said, you should prepare equally for every hurricane season.