If you get time. Look back at Dr Gray's forecast verification for 2004. I used his verification tables from 1999-2004, and he Never jumps more than 1, from the December to April forecasts. However, for some reason, this April he has added 2 to the forecast. I haven't finished reading on his parameters yet, but I'm sure he has a scientific reason.
LIPhil had the same notion. As he posted the same numbers as Dr Gray.
With that said, it's still way to early in the 'game' to predict the exact number of storms. Just start planning Now and Hope that none of us have to utilize our planning.