that's an occluded low that's getting some decent divergence aloft from the cold-core upper low edging along to it's west and south. i can unequivocally state that it's cold here. the temperature struggled to around 60 here in columbia and never got out of the 50s east of here where the stratus layer held.
upper support for the low off the coast should break down and the modest convection near it's center should shear off and cease this evening. it will keep a good northeast surface flow over the atlantic seaboard, advecting cool air in for the next couple of days. highs are going to be stuck 5 to 10 below normal. we would get a freeze tonight, but the winds should stay up and keep the boundary layer well mixed. the growing season is on here, and a freeze wouldn't be much good.
elsewhere i've been watching the SOI index hang near neutral to weak/warm for the last month or so. it took a nosedive yesterday and is back down where it spent much of february. the warm pocket that the february spell generated is surfacing near the galapagos right now and should put those la nina thoughts to sleep for another couple of months. if we go through another SOI spell in late april like we did late february, it'll be time to start talking el nino again.
put menacingly, the pacific is acting pretty much like it did last year. i wouldn't draw any conclusions from that just yet about the summertime circulation, but a reasonable bet would be that hurricane activity in the north atlantic will mimic last year in terms of quantity.
HF 2335z14april