i'm at home attm so i don't have proper access to all li hurricane data...i will post more on this later this afternoon...but as an fyi, and to further confrim keith's response, our water temps, even at peak in early/mid september, cannot support greater than a cat iv...that being said, li has never ever seen anything stronger than a cat iii...and that would be the 1938 li express...which was moving at 70 mph , the fastest ever forward moving hurricane...i iwill shoot you a link to the suny stony brook study on this when i get back to the office, which includes an awesome storm surge projection graphic

we do occasionally see cat i's and some rare cat ii's...

gloria '85 was our last cane

floyd '99 (i met cantore at point lookout during this one) was our last close brush

charley '04 did give us ts winds and the remnants of ivan, also '04, were no picnic either

bob '91 did a detour off the coast of montauk was a bad one, but spared us...

as far as probabilities...they are the same every year...slim to none...we're due for a cane about every 25 years but we could get two in one year and then none for 50 years

i'll do a detailed analysis of current conditions at some point in the next month which will analyze factors which could lead to a greater potential for landfall up in our area...

i'll also give you a "doomsday" scenario for nyc/li in which a cat ii or iii can sneak into ny harbor and flood the subways and close the bridges...

that's all for now...more when i get back to the office