The low that went across SW Florida Sunday 5/1 really deepened quickly and the wind around it gusted at 40+. If this were mid-summer we had something on our hands. It was interesting though.
Not too much discussion here about the work coming out of tropicalstormrisk.com and the study they publihed this winter. I actually read it last week; published in April 21, 2005 issue of Nature. They are posting some very significant statistical support for their models which essentially sample the trades and SST's in July, and then make a firm prediction for the heart of the season in the first few days of August.
Their first forecast for 2005 however, based on data through March was not too encouraging here: 14/8/4. The August forecast would be more likely to focus on landfall as that is their business, insurance losses. Last year they won awards for their work. check it all out for yourselves at: tropicalstormrisk.com.
Doug