Every year they get better at hurricane tracking and forcasting,the numbers don't lie.Just look at the tech.we have developed over the years.It all comes down to numbers,last year there was 6 major storms,they predicted 4.This year they predict 3-5 major storms,the more major storms the better chance of the u.s. getting hit.The average is 2 major storms.It is a numbers game.Of course you could only get one major storm for the year and if it hit a major u.s. city it would be big news.But again,you have go by the odds,more major storms,better chance of u.s. landfall.To me this is just common sence.