i was thinking that banding eye earlier signified a good bit more strengthening than has really taken place. jumped the gun some.. the 'eye' has filled and the cdo definition is ragged right now. it might be a diurnal minumum, or choking on subsidence or something. the western outflow is more restricted than yesterday, but the poleward outflow seems much enhanced.
clark's mention of the right-of-forecast track does present the interesting case that the storm will keep out of the serious shear and decelerate more as it crosses.. and not take the quick ENE track presented in the official. if it goes left, probably won't have any chance of recovery once it goes feet dry. not much confidence in either scenario.
the models are still generating weak lows north of the greater antilles today, and there's still a lot of disturbed weather in the central caribbean and points north and northeast. diffluence around upper troughs and splits is generating a couple of surface troughs near 23/70 and 25/45. somewhere in the middle gfs has an interesting low. none of these are particularly convincing when it comes to development, though. convection in the caribbean continues, but none of the mccs persist long enough to get the 'siphon' going at the surface, as has been happening for days.
so anyhow, it's probably just adrian.. but adrian is interesting enough.
HF 2353z18may