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thats because i'm concerned with more than the next six hours, keith. i'm still not buying the official that the 'remnants' will keep on booking ene. they'll go generally that way, just not quite so fast. partially because adrian may decouple from its convection partially, and drift more to the east. provided it didn't do this over land that would give it a higher chance of regeneration, clinging to the periphery of the subtropical jet and not being completely sheared out. i thought the intensity was a little low and recon confirmed it (didn't think the central pressure was that low though). so as far as the maybe's i had earlier, they've grown if anything. adrian is keeping inside that range of intensity that doesn't allow the forecast to be straightforward. the safest bet is that it doesn't regenerate, but i don't think it's quite that clear cut. it's just going with analogous climo, and the shear conditions (which don't always have the same effect on NE-ward moving systems).
HF 2008z19may
what do you suppose will happen if the storm happens to miracoulsy avoid the shear? The most important hours of a storm are the hours of landfall...and we're already on to bigger and better things. I just feel doing that will have a total disregard for what will happen in CA...that's all.
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Re: maybes