Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu May 19 2005 04:19 PM
Re: maybes

Adrian finally felt the impact of the trough and has started to take go more poleward (the previous N-S elongation comment was spot on). El Salvador still looks like a good bet for landfall; exactly where is not the key, however, it's areas to the east of the storm. There appears to be a bit too much shear in the region for much more strengthening, but the current appearance of the storm looks to be a bit like Hurricane Earl in 1998 (Atlantic basin). The trailing convective bands developing to the east of the storm hints at massive rainfall totals to come; it may also hint at a very early start to the extratropical transition process, but I'm not buying that yet.

As for redevelopment in the Atlantic...we will see. Landfall in Cent. Amer. is likely about 18-24hr from now, with passage from there into the Caribbean as, well, something. How much of something remains to be determined. If it survives the journey relatively intact, it'll likely weaken from there on out (if not become extratropical); if it doesn't, the remnants may just stick around for awhile under weak low-level flow. Like HF mentioned, the possibility for it to deviate from the projected course or become decoupled from the mid-level circulation is there...though also as he mentioned, safest bet is to stick with the forecast.

Rainfall, as noted last night and afternoon, is the biggest concern with this storm. Landfall in about 18hr with an intensity of 75kt or so at its peak somewhere along the El Salvador coast is the likely evolution over the next day or so. From there on out...we'll see.



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