Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri May 20 2005 10:05 AM
Re: arlene may have to wait

Colleen -- it's really just a case of unusually strong winds associated with a trough from the mid-latitudes dipping into the deep tropics and steering the storm northeast, rather than just the trades. That's at least partially likely what happened in Hawaii in 1999 for you as well, potentially associated with the subtropical jet stream.

As for Adrian now...in the immortal words of Bones McCoy, "he's dead, Jim." Very difficult to find a LLC on visible satellite imagery and the northeast side of the storm -- where you'd expect to see the strongest winds -- isn't even showing a hint of a circulation (e.g. winds out of the east) over the open water in the Caribbean on the 1100 UTC QuikSCAT passage. I expect to see the storm declassified after the 11am (ET) advisory, with its remnants not likely redeveloping in the Caribbean: the shear is just too strong. It should become absorbed into a frontal zone somewhere around the time it meets up with Cuba.

Alas, no "A" in the Atlantic basin just quite yet, I'm afraid (well, not really afraid, but you all get the jist of it).



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