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I did find it amusing in a very geeky way that they basicly said, (paraphrased) Yeah, the numbers point to an average year, but we think it's bunk so we're going to make our own estimates and call it really active. I liked that attitude: understanding and recognizing when the previous model has broken down and making a new model, or going with a gut feeling. (though it's more than a gut feeling as there is some climatological data to support the numbers) -Mark |