Arlene could be in the making...off Nicaragua (traditional June area), off SC (another traditional June area)...east of the Lesser Antilles? (Not likely, but it has happened!). And the Gulf is pretty unsettled, pressures low.

The expert 'everyone' is talking about is Jim Lushine of Miami NWS and his theory (which I have seen as a presentation several times now) is solid as far as it goes... dry May in S. Fl, hurricane hits there at relatively high frequency. Wet (above normal) May = NO S. Fl hits in recorded history.

Adding to the mix: La Nada years (like last yr and this yr) tend to be the years where Florida takes the most hits and the strongest ones.

Having said that...we have too little reliable history (years) to say for sure any of these empirical facts mean anythig for sure...just correlations so far, that could be 'proven by the exeption to the rule' at any time...but, that is not the way to 'bet'...or hedge your bets.

As for me: bought a super duper ladder, a chainsaw; generator tomorrow. Got a new storage shed and anchored it to 130 mph...so, you can guess what I think will happen....if not in this year, another year.

Be prepared! It's the only way to be in Florida for the next 20+ years (and always).

MM