Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 02 2005 03:56 AM
Re: Experts=Grain of Salt

Terra -- you're right about the feedback mechanisms. Here's another example, related directly to tropical season: once you reach SSTs of about 31 C, you start to get automatic unorganized (no organization mechanism around) convective development. This happens on occasion near the equator in the West Pacific, serving to lower SSTs due to a reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface.

This feature, dubbed the convective albedo thermostat, effectively limits the upper bounds of tropical cyclone intensity (related in large part to the sea tmeperatures at and just below the surface) as well as limits the potential for spontaneous tropical develop given sufficiently warm SSTs. Further, one of the markers of increased SSTs lies in El Nino, all in all a negative effect on Atlantic hurricane activity.

Increasing global warming may result in warmth everywhere, though it's likely not going to result in hypercanes, a substantial increase in the number of the storms seen per year (the numbers of which will vary from basin to basin), or really result in any changes to preferred tropical cyclone tracks. Any such changes in the previous two items may be realized, but likely not to as large a degree as some have predicted due to the physical processes noted above.

In any case, there still remains a lot that we don't know about what's going on, namely because our ability to understand hasn't gotten there yet, nor have we seen anything like this before. It will be an interesting few years before we get there.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center