Not too worried about the goings-on in the NW Caribbean. It's another in the chain of "systems" that has bombarded central Florida with rain this week; as with all of the others, the GFS takes it into north Florida somewhere. Also as with all of the others, it'll likely go south of that across the peninsula. Most of the convection there is a result of divergent (diffluent) upper-level flow across the region and isn't tropical in nature.

The convection out there may be impressive, but the system is incredibly sheared and what circulation may be there -- appears to be upper-level -- is to the west of the convection and just south of another upper-low. There is a large amount of dry air behind it, no surface circulation (per QuikSCAT data), and weak model support. Wind shear may lessen somewhat, but that's mainly an artifact of the low extending from the low-levels to upper-levels on top of itself and not indicative of an upper-level pattern conducive to development.

You can occasionally see development from such systems if they persist out of the midlatitude pattern for some period of time over warm waters, but this system is firmly entrenched in the midlatitude pattern, has cold-core structure & origins, and (per models) only a weak signature near the surface -- 850mb -- and none at the surface as of now. I don't really see anything happening with this system unless it can somewhat detach itself from the midlatitude flow and move southeast from its present location, which isn't terribly likely in my view. More likely than anything however, it's just going to provide south & central Florida with more rain in a day or two.