It's interesting.. still just a max on a trough. GFS has been trying to create a low around there for the last couple of days, and there it is in all it's glory. Very formless right now.. Clark and JK have pretty well covered that. Interesting how the late afternoon TWO worded the situation though.. usually get at least an invest when such choice of words is used. The pattern isn't very favorable, but it should at least persist... time isn't an issue at least.
Further east near the islands that active early wave is continuing to generate a decent signature. A trough to the north should disrupt the deep easterly flow enough for some of its energy to get hung near the islands... for the near future. Later next week globals still have a disturbance in the area. maybe a subsequent wave is feeding into it as well.. not sure. either way, there's been some consistency about this feature for 3-4 days now. the same initial wave is in the far western caribbean by that timeframe and may be the culprit in the other low that starts showing up there by that time... from run to run.
nothing very convincing, but interesting for early june. if we still had the name allison floating around that would almost guarantee a june storm... arlene has worked pretty well for early storms too.
HF 2335z03june