We currently have a system over central america and the western carribean today that could become our first tropical storm or even hurricane of the season.
Like Jason said, recon will fly out Weds to collect data to send to the TPC/NHC. I feel when they get there the system will be full out in the w. carribean and a depression nearing TS status. Hard to pinpoint right now the exact evoloution. Models on average make this a TS by Weds night and take it thru the Yucitan Channel by Thurs night and into the S or SE Gulf by Friday morning. Some show its pressure down to near 992mb. After this they diverage but only slightly. Most take it near NO. Couple further east.
Right now for me I see this becoming a storm later Weds evening or night. Movement will be this N to near the western tip of Cuba by Friday morning. I also see it nearing hurricane strength. After that it should cross into the SE Gulf. Right now its too early (more then 3 days) to pinpoint landfall but I agree with the models. Bermuda high aloft will stretch w accros the SE U.S. and Florida and the system should steer N around and W of the ridge. Any weakness late in the week of this ridge could bring it into Florida or the panhandle. The strength should be near hurricane strength but I see dry air moving into the system and erroding the w and sw side by later friday into saturday. Dry air is currently over Mexico and Texas and this should slide eastward. So currently its a tough call.
My 3day forcast is a strong Tropical storm near hurricane stregth in the SE Gulf by mid day Friday. scottsvb