there's still model support for some near/northeast of the lesser antilles later on, but since last night the feature strung from el salvador up to cuba has indications of weak low level turning and ridging aloft. nhc is talking about recon for tomorrow, and the earlier model runs the suddenly began creating a dubious low east of belize have been calling it repeatedly for a couple of days now.. so this is a climo victory and probably an early bad call on my part. it has 'the look' of a formative tropical system right now.. we've seen that briefly on previous features this season, but not with the evidence stacked like it is right now.
the components are there... the northward building ridge in the models is a tad unsettling.. but with an upper ridge poised over the mid atlantic anything that develops won't be a quick and out NE storm across cuba.. it will run up into the gulf. scott's explanation of its potential evolution looks sound... i'm thinking slower evolution. things could be very interesting later this week.
HF 1836z07june