Finally we got something to watch that actually has a decent chance.

The disturbance in the W Caribbean has really come around since this morning. Last night the Western Caribbean was filled with mostly cloudiness and a few showers. I was very skeptical of yesterday's GFS and CMC runs that were showing a rapidly developing tropical storm by late Wednesday/into Thursday. Now I'll buy into those a LITTLE more than I previously was.

The current CIMISS shear analysis shows a patch of moderate shear to the immediate north of the thunderstorm activity. Over the next few days, the gradual building of the Atlantic ridge should allow for the shear to relax some. The GFS shear forecast is what shows this happening, with a significant decrease in shear by Friday. At the very least, we know that upper-level winds will become more favorable as the week grows on. This should allow for slow development, but perhaps not as fast as what the GFS and CMC are showing.

It is too early to make exact track predictions. By the end of the week, however, the building of the Bermuda High should allow the system to move in a NW to N direction. My current thinking is a Mississippi to FL. Panhandle landfall.