still a broad low, but there is definitely the look to this system... probably arlene in a day or two. i think that whatever develops starts in a NE drift, and turns nnw over time. got a hunch that most of the models have it developing too fast and moving a little faster than it will.. should only pick up speed later in the forecast period. right off the bat my thought is that it goes towards the florida panhandle. there is precedence for a severe hurricane originating in the area in early june (alma in 1966 for one), but typically systems forming down there stay under shear and don't make more than minimal hurricane if that. wasn't 1966 listed as an analog year for this one... hmm. ssts in the NE gulf won't support a strong hurricaner.. warmer near the central gulf but shear will likely be higher over there. also looks like the storm will be moving along, so not one of those loitering, extreme flood events.
interesting of note, globals also showing a suspicious feature somewhere in the northern caribbean or the atlantic to the north of there... 5 days out or so. there's a sharp TUTT feature setting up and then collapsing in the runs also... probably what will keep it in check. not a well-supported event, but around the weekend there may be something else worth watching.
HF 0418z08june