the circulation still looks very broad on visible, so I've got a hunch that even though recon will find a closed low, there's a chance there won't be an upgrade. surface winds in the area are probably 25-30kt though. it's a depression in my book, but the nhc makes those sorts of calls, not i. we'll have us an arlene tomorrow one way or another.
watching that low level swirl over near 24/55. it was blowing some decent convection overnight, but that decoupled this morning. it's near the center of an upper trough right now, and starting to deal with some significant subsidence. whether anything can develop over there is just a matter of matching the upstream diffluent region of the upper trough with some decent convergence along the surface trough... getting that to happen is always the trick. small potatoes right now compared to 90L/formative arlene.
HF 2003z08june