I agree with you, Droop. I don't know that the actual "center" will go over the tip of Cuba...the convection might. However, even if it does, it's going over the narrowest and lowest part of the Island of Love and Humanity, so I really don't think it will tear it to pieces.
I do believe that this will be a major rain event for Florida. But I have a question: which scenario would be worse for Florida:
1. The center stays 200 miles off the coast of Florida, meaning we get all the effects of the eastern quadrant of the storm or
2. The center is closer to the coast (say, a brush with Ft. Myers) and the outer bands are mostly over the Atlantic Ocean.
Then again, there's
3. It stays closer to the coast, and as it pulls away, we get the rain bands.

I really don't see how Florida won't be affected by it one way or the other. You can already feel the tropical moisture in the air - it's heavier than usual.
Just some random thoughts flying through my head.