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11am is up. raw stuff: AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK ARLENE THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE....MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 84.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB |