Okay, advise please.

News Channel 8 (John Winter) out of Tampa Bay said this morning that there was a very good chance that our weather was going to be affected over the weekend by Arlene. Giving us a 60% chance of rain and said that it could go up.
What is the real possibility of that happening?

I am trying to plan my daughter's second birthday party for Saturday at 4 and one of the things I got her is for outside. I would really like to be able to set it up for the other kids to enjoy to but, if the weather is going to be nasty - I won't so that she doesn't get bummed by not being able to play on it.

Any ideas out there? I am just East of Tampa in Polk County. I am just curious if I should just leave it boxed up for another week and plan the BBQ for indoors.

Thanks!
Katie

P.S. Skeetobite or Mike C, I need your help, I may be contacting you in a little bit. Phil suggested I talk to you. Thanks!