#28 Published Thursday June 09, 2005 at 1:00 pm EDT
As of 11:00 am EDT we officially have T.S. Arlene. She continues on a slow NNW movement towards the Yucatan Channel. She is still disorganized with most of the convection E-NE of the low level center, thanks to continued SSW wind shear in association with the mid level trough in the western Gulf Of Mexico region. It appears that this mid level trough will weaken rather slowly, continuing the shearing environment for another 24-30 hours.
As I mentioned yesterday evening at best Arlene will reach weak category 1 hurricane strength, with strong T.S. strength the best bet. Landfall sometime on Saturday near Mobile Bay, AL per the NHC seems reasonable. However with a temporary weakening of the Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida a land fall near Pensacola, FL is also possible.
Tropical storm force wind gusts, a small storm surge, heavy rainfall and destructive tornadoes are possible along the coast from Key West to Panama City and probable from Pensacola to Mobile Bay during the Friday-Saturday 06/10-11/05 period.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

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