Fri Jun 10 2005 03:30 AM
The Arlene Situation

5PM Update 10.Jun
Hurricane Watch extended eastward to Indian Pass, FL (Just west of Tallahassee) and winds upgraded to 65MPH.

See Clark's blog below for an updated discussion.

11:00 AM Update 10.Jun
Arlene Strengthens some more, now Hurricane Watches are up along the coast from the mouth of the Pearl River in Mississippi to Panama City Beach, FL.

The windspeed is based off of aircraft recon reports, which reported around 50 knot winds near the disorganized center of Arlene. In fact they moved the center northward a bit because of relocation. So this may happen again. Vertical windshear weakened and has allowed Arlene to strengthen a bit as it entered the Gulf. And because of the close call, Arlene may squeeze itself to minimal hurricane strength, and at the very least force the Hurricane Watches along the coast. Folks in the watch area will want to be ready for a minimal hurricane.

Most of the energy is on the Northeastern side of the storm, including rainfall bands coming into Southwestern Florida now.

8:00 AM Update 10.Jun
Arlene is now in the Gulf of Mexico, and the winds are up to 55MPH. Arlene has been spawning waterspouts near the Florida Keys, and may stir up the atmosphere enough to spawn more relatively weak waterspouts/tornadoes.

7:30 AM Update 10.Jun
Tropical Storm Arlene got slightly stronger overnight, and now Tropical Storm Watches are up from Morgan City, LA to Indian Pass Florida. The models have drifted a bit west, and this watch area is pretty solid I thnk. A good portion of the energy extends Northeastward on this system, which will bring rain to Central Florida as well.

The forecast maps below are probably too far east, but we'll wait and see today.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Arlene is still south of the west of Cuba, and not all that organized right now.

It may have a chance to strengthen just a little when it gets into the Gulf proper. However, if it gets closer to land the windshear as it approaches will likely pick up, which would keep the storm in check and stop it from growing too strong. Arlene still has a window to reach minimal hurricane strength, but I doubt it will reach that. A strong Tropical storm and rain event is most likely over the weekend.

The most recent trends have it going a little west of the prior forecast tracks, which is good news for us in Florida, as it may keep some of the rain away. However, the extent of the storm northward will still give us some of the outermost bands, as Arlene is a large storm, so it won't be rain free. Some of it is already in the Keys. The intensity is still in question, so we'll have to watch. As mentioned before the good news is that it might weaken before it gets to land a bit, from whatever it will be at the time. The 36 hour timeframe is liekly when Arlene will peak.

Skeetobite Forecast Maps: (Click Maps for larger image)

Movement likens it more from LA to the western Florida Panhandle. Centering along the Alabama and Mississippi Coastline. This could change, as I'm not all that confident in it. The trend has been to the west, after moving a bit to the east. Persistence is the key to watch here.

As this is an early June storm, they actually tend to be easier to predict, but even then, it's not all that great.

We'll be watching it closely. The area east of the Caribbean is still looking ragged and not at all likely to develop anytime soon.

Event Related Links

Key west long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop

Color Sat of Arlene

Animated model plots for Arlene
Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

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