Just want to post a few quick points here. Everything that most of us mets or future mets have said with Arlene has happend. She has strengthned in the se GOM, still dry air on its sw side, ( as said was going to be back 3 days ago) and a possibility of her making it near hurricane strength at landfall. My forcast still stands at a Panhandle hit. Most of the worst of the weather will be from near the center and to the east of the system. This is typical in GOM storms of this status.
On a quick model note: Consistance is a key to a good model, but sometimes the model on each storm will perform different. Currently if you look over the last 6-8 runs, the BAMM has been most consistant. The 12z models right now coming out already have Arlene alittle too far to the west near 85.5 (matters which model) by 8pm tonight. That wont happen unless she moves NW now. Anyways I agree a track simular to the BAMM but alittle to the west.Again its going to be the weather near the center and to its east will be the main factor. Pressure should continue to drop into the evening. scottsvb