#29 Published Friday June 10, 2005 at 2:15 pm EDT

As of 2:00 pm EDT T.S. Arlene is moving due north at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. This northerly course is a little to the right of the official NHC forecast track and is what I was alluding too yesterday while discussing the weakening of the Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida.

She is still disorganized with most of the convection E-NE of the low level center, thanks to continued SSW wind shear in association with the weakening mid level trough in the western Gulf Of Mexico region. Even with continued wind shearing she still has managed to strengthen some and could still reach minimal category 1 status before landfall. However I think she will fall just short of a hurricane with 70 mph sustained winds. What's 5 mph though. While a course turn to the NNW with a landfall near Mobile Bay sometime late on Saturday June, 11, 2005 per the official NHC forecast track is still very possible, I think that a landfall near Pensacola tomorrow evening is also increasingly possible.

Tropical storm force wind gusts, a small storm surge, heavy rainfall and destructive tornadoes (due to extra-tropical characteristics) are possible along the coast from Key West to Panama City and probable from Pensacola to Mobile Bay during the Friday-Saturday 06/10-11/05 period. Once inland flooding rains could occur across the deep south and Tennessee Valley regions.

And speaking of tornadoes they are occurring in the Florida Keys region northward along the west coast to the southern Tampa Bay region as I type.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

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