Hurricane Fredrick 1979
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jun 11 2005 08:36 AM
Re:Don't let your Guard Down Yet!

Quote:

NHC website...under Aircraft recon on the left side.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
Latest report showing she is still Alive.

URNT11 KNHC 110757
97779 07204 70294 85019 15400 13065 14149 /2463
RMK AF305 0901A ARLENE OB 06

29.4 85.0 location of report only!
154 dkm above surface (5051ft )
13065 wind 130deg SE at 65kts
1414 Temp 14C dew point 14C (relative humidity near 100%-rain)

The winds at 5051ft will reduce to a lower speed at the surface. NHC/TPC has a formula for this, but I'm not sure what it is. I would think that 75% of the 65kts would be a safe reduction to the surface.
That would be around 49kts or 57 mph at the surface...this is My guess. You'll have to wait on NHC to give a statement to get their actual surface wind speed.
Arlene is a strange storm and I'm not sure how they are able to keep up with her ramblings and vortices.




Got that right. I'm doing good to keep up with just the path But it did go down from 70mph to about 60 right? I look for it to regain strength if this did happen. The water temp there is about 85 deg.



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