We've got a little bit of a quandry on our hands this morning. The convective trends of last night continued into the early morning hours -- oh, about 3a ET -- but what that did allow was for the center to move into the midst of what convection remained. Now, nearing the diurnal convective maximum and the warmest waters in the Gulf, Arlene is making a fairly nice recovery, with a CDO-pulse feature near and over the center of circulation. Recon pressure is 991mb and the overall intensity of the storm is essentially the same as its peak intensity from yesterday -- pressure only up 2mb and 850mb height only up 10 meters from 1349m to 1359m (850mb height gives you an indication of the intensity of the storm: the lower the 850mb height, the deeper the storm). Danny, I will have to disagree with you on the recon/intensity question...one of the biggest reasons we have recon is because those wind/height relationships and satellite estimates don't always work very well.

Nevertheless, shear isn't increasing all that much and there appears to be convective support around much of the storm. As called for last night, Arlene has the potential to become a hurricane before landfall, aided by the new convection and very warm SSTs over its path. Landfall is imminent within the next 12hr at or perhaps just slightly above its current intensity -- though as with many tropical cyclones, the strongest winds will ONLY be felt offshore, at the immediate coast, and in downbursts associated with heavy rain inland -- somewhere in the Mobile, AL area.