Yes, the area to the east of the Leeward islands is large trof, harboring some upper level related convection. That is often a common spot for trof's to hang out, and really prevents any GOM action, and encourages homegrown trouble. I believe last year Hermine and Gaston formed from decoupled disturbances.

Arlene by the next advisory should become a hurricane. As Clark has said, a burst of convection has appeared in the center, and the system appears to be trying to close it's SW quad. with clouds. Mobile should is getting a taste of Arlene as we speak. A nasty feeder band is plowing through. The center happens to be offshore and appears to be moving more west. As I said last night, I don't this is just going to make one landfall, it's going to scrape the coast.

Clark- It does look like I may win the contest, to make light on this.