#32 Published Saturday June 11, 2005 at 10:30 am EDT

Last evenings WNW cyclone center wobble/reformation/relocation became a sustained new heading of NW for T.S. Arlene. At 8:00 am EDT she is moving NW-NNW at 16 mph with sustained winds of 70 mph. Wind shear and dry air entrainment halted further strengthening during the overnight hours.

However looking at the latest visible satellite imagery we are now seeing an eye feature with one last burst of convection on the NW side. This means that minimal category 1 hurricane status may still be reached right before landfall somewhere just east of Mobile Bay near Gulf Shores, AL. this afternoon. Might as well flip a coin!

Tornadoes and waterspouts have continued to occur across the Florida Peninsula region with Arlene's spiral feeder bands but I think the overall threat of tornadoes has lessened across the Gulf Coast for now.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

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