Looks like I'll loose the contest, with recent satellite imagery, infrared, and water vapor. Almost seems to be forming some type of depression in the CDO, but infrared indicates convection is still presistent. Water vapor imagery indicates a large area of dry air wrapping around the system, which might increase the threat of tornado's, but surely limit the tropical characteristics. Radar, at least base reflectivity indicates at large swath of 1-2 " of rain have fell. This should become quite a prolific rain producer once on land in the deep south. This is mainly because convection can start much easier on land then water this time of year.