eye or not, arlene had it's worst quadrant intruded upon by subsidence wrapped in from the south... where all the bad weather is supposed to be the convection is capped, and all the energy is being expended on the western, weak side. the pressure is still at 991, but with the structure all screwed up and recon only finding mid-gale strength winds at flight level, i'd safely assume that arlene isn't going to give the alabama or panhandle beaches any 70mph winds. last night before the convection became intermittent and less defined, recon was finding conditions normally associated with a minimal hurricane... nhc was hesitant to kick it up i guess (maybe they thought all the mandatory evacuations that would kick in would not be worth the risk)... but i've got a mind that season post-analysis will tag arlene as a minimal hurricane on the afternoon of june 10th, like claudette of 2003 was reanalyzed to have briefly been in the NW caribbean. effective landfall intensity going into the historic database will probably be 50-60mph, even with the low pressure hanging near 990... unless we get a last minute rally and a half. with the right quadrant smacked down like it's been, though... arlene shouldn't be a very memorable storm at the coast. after this afternoon it's a rain event/tornado threat only.
HF 1813z11june