Recon indicates that Arlene's weaker convective pattern is generating lesser winds than late yesterday, now at 60 MPH. The central pressure is at 991 Mb, not far removed from it's lowest point yesterday at 989.

Much of the weather from Arlene is already onshore, with the weak partial CDO feature ringing the eye coming onshore in the next two hours. Landfall will occur around 20Z, or 2PM Central Daylight time right near the AL/FL line between Orange Beach and Pensacola Beach.

On the immediate coastline sustained winds 50-60 MPH with gusts to near hurricane force may occur in the stronger bands. Once that's done, there is still scattered convection from outer bands from the Central Panhandle, east over the Peninsula and much of Georgia. Steadier rains along the northwestern side of the storm are occuring near the AL/MS line and over Northern Alabama.. this should be where the highest precip totals occur and spread north through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys over the next day or two. There may be some peripheral severe weather as it moves north, but there has been little so far. Modeling maintains Arlene's low and tracks it off the Northeast coast next week as an extratropical system.

There are model rumblings in the Caribbean, with a disturbance persistently appearing near Jamaica going into early next week. The pattern will have changed by then and probably keep such a feature away from the U.S., but it will be an interesting feature to watch. The other former disturbance, 91L, is a fading low level swirl in a sheared, strong subsidence environment southwest of Bermuda.

Arlene may have bucked the trend, but since it's June these things have to work extra hard to get going.

HF 1900z11june

Event Related Links

Mark Sudduth at Gulf Shores

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar Loop

Key West long range radar loop
Tallahassee, FL long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop

Color Sat of Arlene

Animated model plots for Arlene
Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports