I hate to disagree with the guys down the hall at the TLH NWS, but the 00z GFS from today doesn't show the Carib feature moving into the Gulf...it doesn't really develop it at all. Instead, along the end of the frontal foundary that is expected to stall out over the area, the GFS & other models develop a weak area of low pressure and bring it across the region. What they may have it mixed up with as well is a weak 850mb vorticity signature heading through the Yucutan channel on Monday in that 00z GFS run, but it too would likely move around the periphery of the Caribbean "low"...and has no real surface signature.

If anything forms in the W. Carib, it'll likely be a threat to Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda...and not one to Florida. It's gotta develop, first, and while shear tendencies are towards less shear, there's not a surface circulation...yet. Indications are that one may be forming on the western edge of the convection and there is support at 850mb, but all that is there right now is a mid-level circulation. No models have a lot of support for this feature, at least not until it begins to move northeast in the western Atlantic.

At least the GFS isn't so bullish on a Cape Verde storm any longer...