danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 11:27 PM |
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Re:GFS
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Quote:
I hate to disagree with the guys down the hall at the TLH NWS, but the 00z GFS from today doesn't show the Carib feature moving into the Gulf...it doesn't really develop it at all. Instead, along the end of the frontal foundary that is expected to stall out over the area, the GFS & other models develop a weak area of low pressure and bring it across the region. What they may have it mixed up with as well is a weak 850mb vorticity signature heading through the Yucutan channel on Monday in that 00z GFS run, but it too would likely move around the periphery of the Caribbean "low"...and has no real surface signature.
I saw the features in question last night. Thanks to some teachings that I picked up here, I was able to put the "possible" label on the Caribbean 850mb vortice as it died out just west of Ft Myers.
The Cape Verde vortice was performing a unusal 'right hand turn' prior to reaching 60.0 W. Probably skirting the Azores High, or the trough just west of the 60 W longitude line.
Waiting on tonights models, but not getting too enthused about the whole scenario.
I checked the Western Atlantic models from 1800Z today. Still don't see any significant surface or upper air features.
http:www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml
edited @ 2355Z 7:55 PM EDT