Statement...Input from "MET Blog" folks appreciated.
When a system looks like this in the Carribean, it just usually seems to develop. Seems to be a lot af varying conjecture on this developing system in the meteorology world. A lot of models are trying to grab on to this and move it out to sea (but i also notice the latest publically available GFS shows the Carrib low phasing out for a new one that develops in the Bahamas) , the TPC Tropical Weather Discussion notes northward motion yet the surface analysis shows low level ridging to the north, and the NWS Tally and Tampa talk of a potential tropical system in eastern gulf. There are different schools of thought here.
Anyhow, my thought and question. I notice on water vapor that the Upper level low in the Atlantic seems to be getting streatched by a building high in the eastern and central Carib. (Part digging SW, part digging east). My thought has been that this might fall in between, with the core of the upper low moving east and the SW portion eventually evolving into a cut-off in the SW carribean. Disturbance path somewhare in the middle. Do you concur on this observation?