in the west caribbean we have a synoptically forced invest tonight. diffluence south of the split from from the upper trough immediately to the north, and a persistent logjam in the trades in the western caribbean is feeding this puppy for now. like last year, the TUTT seems to consist not of a broad, table-sweeping trough, but an endless series of cut off lows that alternately aid and squelch develpment. as far as june is concerned, anyway.
92L has been showing consistently for about a week as a system originating near jamaica and moving either over the area from haiti to eastern cuba, and northeast into the westerlies. the big ridge near the east coast that jammed arlene up to the great lakes (hpc just issued their final advisory on the depression over the 'thumb' of lower michigan) is flattening out, while in it's earlier surge it had dug a weakness on its southeastern flank that extends down into the deep tropics.. acting with the tutt, contributing to the 'logjam' by synoptically forcing the rising of air in the region, and the lowering of surface pressure. if anything is to materialize, it will likely resemble that unclassified system from may of 2004.. perhaps as a clear cut tropical cyclone, but sheared and 'side-heavy' in profile. it should move slowly enough in a support environment to get a good shot at a surface low over the next couple of days, but be sheared and turned northeast beyond that point.. over the bahamas and out into the open atlantic.
there isn't another system the models are approaching enthusiastically beyond this one.. occasional blips in the gulf (that tend to move NE and don't appear on consecutive runs), and that suspicious looking cape verde system which has emerged as a strong but not evidently cyclonic wave. neither has much support.. one lacks a strong, clear pattern forcing element... the other would have to be a world-class early bird to form east of the islands this time of year.
if the caribbean feature develops into a named storm, it will be the first time since 1986 that two storms formed in june. 1982 (and nearly 1997) had a couplet of june systems, but one was subtropical in nature. it doesn't happen very often, and is more typical of either a strong el nino year or a hyperactive season. the latter is more feasible... we all know that may be what we're looking at this year.
first light visibles and some solid recon should give us something to check tomorrow.
HF 0306z14june