what's all this talk about la nina? that's a shot of upwelling near the galapagos, if that's what's being discussed... it happens from time to time. the tropical pacific has been staying neutral to weak warm.. if la nina is trying to come on, SOI going hard negative every couple of weeks to a month and staying there for extended periods is keeping it well in check. there are still more positive anomalies in the 1/2 region than negatives, and the 3/4 is and has been pretty much positive since this time last year. rabbit made comments on past years that may have some ancillary bearing on the topic, as to what sort of year we're in anyway. i reckon it's more or less like every year since 1995 (save 1997).. lots of atlantic action, underwhelming pacific activity.
other stuff... speaking of underwhelming, 92L is just that. there's one of those next-to-the convection sort of hairpin vorticity maxes that crosses jamaica today.. further east in the heavy convection there doesn't seem to be any further organization. this setup does not bode for much development unless the hairpin gets into the convection.. a possible window for this is tomorrow as the the upper trough develops a meander in the sw caribbean and the diffluence on its northeast flank increases. the chances of development still aren't doing more than skipping across the pond.. this duck hasn't taken wing by any means. if it does we can name it bret.
the boc (burn out the day.. heheh) flareup today has been showing intermittently on globals for days, but surprised me a little.. some version of it has been present at least. with the upper trough forecast to dig into the east going into next week.. any disturbance in that region would get a window for development ahead of the amplification.. if anything significant could take shape that is. there isn't a convincing argument for this, but if disturbed weather keeps persisting in the area, or say, near the yucatan... that could change things. as the trough digs some energy is forecast to feed up ahead of it early next week, so we'll have to see what collects over there during the next few.
east atlantic.. blah. the 18z gfs run spits another phantom off the coast near the end of the month. we've seen the odd june/july depression out of that part of the world over the last five years or so (2000, 2001, 2003). the recent wave isn't doing much, but as the next month or two goes by i wouldn't be surprised if some more substantial features materialize down there. gfs has been getting better at spotting trouble...
that's much adieu about little. bret is on layover or perhaps will arrive on a later flight, so we're just wave-mongering a little. the innocent, i don't really believe this type. hopefully haiti isn't getting drenched too bad... after the 2004 events they should be all the more wary of slow moving, systems. ridge in the east is giving way, but not before it bakes this part of the country for a day or two. today was very hot here, and not much rain around for the first time in over two weeks. tomorrow should be a scorcher, the hottest of the year so far. summer arrives with a vengeance, if only for a brief visit.
HF 0415z15june