Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jun 20 2005 03:13 AM
Re:GFS discussion

Danny and all...take a look at this product we have here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/confidence/images/current/wspd.movie.gif (at least for the next half-day to day or so; main website is at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/confidence/.) That is a plot of the "confidence" of the GFS and its member ensembles with regards to surface wind speeds over the next 7 days. Anywhere where you have progressively darker reds (and even black), you have much less confidence in the overall forecast because all of the members of the GFS ensemble don't agree so well on what will happen (like the end of the HPC discussion in the previous post).

Note in the 2-4 day time frame a large bulls-eye coming out of the Caribbean up into Florida, as depicted with a low-pressure system in some recent runs of the operational GFS. This shows that there is very little confidence in the forecast the operational model put out because the member ensembles can't agree on what will happen. So, needless to say, it's something to pay attention to in case it does actually come to fruition...but I wouldn't hold my breath on this one.

Thanks. Edited url for confidence link



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