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For those that have been following the GFS forecast. Please read the link below for this morning's Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Slidell. It's educational and informative. Seems the ETA and GFS are giving the forecasters quiet a stir, too! There is Still no mention of any development in the GOM. Here are the first two sentences from the KLIX AFD~Slidell, LA. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ( edited to shorten post~danielw) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 300 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005 .DISCUSSION... "WOW...WHAT A DIVERGENT SOLUTION IN THE MAJOR MODEL SUITES. BEGINNING AT 48 HOURS THE GFS AND ETA DIVERGE STRONGLY UNTIL THEY ARE 180 DEGEES OUT OF PHASE. BY 78 HRS THE ETA HAS A SFC HIGH IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT THE GFS HAS A TROPICAL SFC LOW...HMMMMMM..." http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LIX/AFDLIX.0506200726 Last two sentences of this discussion follow. ..."WILL SIMPLY NOT TOUCH ANY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ATTM SINCE SOLUTIONS FROM ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHAKY AT BEST THE LAST 3 DAYS. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES...WE WILL BEGIN TO PLACE A SFC LOW WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE IN THE MID TO EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST." Please check local NWS Forecasts in your area for the extended forecasts. |